John’s Blog/Newsletter: SEA LEVEL RISE NOW

A meme is an idea, behavior, or style that spreads from person to person within a culture. With the growing concern about flooding and rising sea level there is a common meme that we can ‘fix’ the problem. Often the assumption is that renewable energy (no carbon emissions) is the answer. Sometimes it is just hoping that “they” find some technology to stop the sea from rising.

These are false memes. Unfortunately, due to the heat that is already stored in the ocean, sea level rise is locked in for centuries.  Any technology that could possibly cool the oceans sufficiently to stop the ice from melting and the seas from rising defies some basic physics. I know we live in an era where the lines get blurred between fake facts and spin, but the science is quite clear.

Let’s start with the basics:

• After 5,000 years of relatively stable temperature, the planet is warmer. The excess heat is already stored in the ocean.
• The ice sheets and glaciers on Antarctica are melting faster and faster.
• We know from geologic history and simple physics that sea level moves up and down tens, even hundreds of feet as climate changes.
• Melting just 5% of the ice would mean about ten feet (3 m) of essentially permanent higher sea level.
• Technology is not going to change the temperature at which ice melts. 
• There is no realistic place to put the rising ocean like digging a hole, putting it in the desert, or outer space — each of which was a proposed “solution” that I have received in an email or comment to blog posts.

Technology will almost certainly find a way to satisfy our energy requirements without warming the planet. But that does not get rid of the excess heat already stored in the sea. New ways to produce “clean energy”; energy efficiency, ways to reflect sunlight, to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are all good ideas and feasible. However, there is enough heat already added over the last century to melt ice, which will raise sea level many feet. If we do not slow the warming, the ocean will rise higher and sooner. But we have passed a tipping point. Sea level rise can no longer be stopped.

We all accept that there are some realities we must deal with, rather than “fix.” As they say you can’t avoid death and taxes. The reality is that dealing with sea level rise is like dealing with those sober realities. We need to work to minimize the problem and prepare for the part that is inevitable. Just like aging, the “solutions” come from realistic acceptance and adaptation. In that sense there can be “solutions” but it is not what we think of as a “fix”. Hoping for technology to fix rising sea level only delays planning for the higher sea level to come. 

Memes can be useful ways to get concepts understood. The idea that “technology can fix rising sea level” is a false meme.  Adapting to sea level rise is the right concept. 

We need to Rise with the Tide. Now that is a meme worth spreading.