Stop CO2 to Stop Sea Level Rise. WRONG!
There is a widely held belief that we can solve the problem of rising sea level by cutting carbon emissions. It is very wrong and very dangerous. The mistaken concept was featured at a recent Miami conference on resiliency for city and county officials, developers, builders and engineers. The erroneous idea was even illustrated by WLRN Public Radio’s headline story “How to Prepare for Sea Level Rise? Miami developer recommends cutting carbon emissions” (shown above) coming out of the conference.
The developer they cited in the headline and story voiced two valid and very important concepts: greater energy efficiency, and the need to adapt to rising sea level. Unfortunately his message also emphasized a false connection between the two. While I knew that a large portion of the public may hold that mistaken belief that efforts to be “green” might stop rising sea level, I truly thought that falsehood was clear to community leaders and professionals–the kind of people at the conference. I was stunned to see that WLRN headline about their “takeaway” from the conference. Mr. Ojeda is indeed a leading Miami real estate developer and a fine example of enlightened attitude. To give him due credit, his two points as described in the story, and as faithfully recorded in his own words on their web site are excellent. Each of them individually that is.
To paraphrase, he said that with increased flooding now, and the prospect of rising sea level in the years to come, that we should do two things: Build higher to be more flood resistant. Second, be more energy efficient such as the LEED Gold certification earned by his building shown here. On those two points, Mr. Ojeda is 100% correct. But he did not stop there. He said that the main focus for developers should be energy efficiency in order to prepare for rising sea level and to stop it. That is incorrect and misleading.
The false belief is that we can stop rising sea level in the near future by cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It is so appealing to think that if we have more “green” energy efficient buildings and communities it would be enough to stop sea level rise. This belief is so widely accepted, that it might be considered a “meme” or cultural belief. In reality, it’s a myth.
The truth is:
- Energy and global warming are now largely uncoupled from sea level rise, at least for the next few decades.
- The entire world could stop all CO2 emissions tomorrow and sea level will keep rising throughout this century
- We have passed a “tipping point” due to the massive amount of excess heat already stored in the ocean
- Good programs like the energy efficient LEED buildings mentioned can eventually slow the rise of the ocean but can not stop it.
- For coastal cities to be viable for the next 50 – 100 years they must adapt to a world with constantly rising sea levels, now projected to be a couple of feet as early as mid century and five to ten feet by the end of century.
These facts are not new. I wrote about this two years ago. ‘Don’t Confuse Sustainable Energy with Adapting to Rising Sea Level”. But it appears that we have a tremendous resistance to accept this reality.
Carbon emissions are local but soon blend in the atmosphere globally. Warming is a planet-level phenomenon affected by the total blended emissions from all cities. Even if every city in the world followed the given example and drastically reduced their carbon emissions, with the target of getting to zero emissions, sea level will still rise for centuries, though it would happen more slowly.
The problem is that the oceans have already been warmed about one and a half degrees Fahrenheit, or one degree Celsius. That is an incredible amount of stored heat energy. Even with the goals of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. the HOPE is that we can keep the warming to double that amount. But even one degree means many feet of higher sea level. The planet is already warmer. As long as ice melts at 32 degrees F (zero C), a warmer planet means less ice and higher sea level. In fact based on geologic history from 120,000 years ago, with warming that has already occurred, the seas will eventually rise at least 25 feet (7+ meters). If we do the right things with maximum effort to slow the warming, we may be able to delay that for centuries. That would be a great goal. In other words, if all the cities in the world set tough standards, we could get global warming and rising seas under control eventually but it would not happen quickly. For example Copenhagen has set a target to be “carbon neutral” by 2025 — in just eight years. That’s a fantastic goal. And with its location and weather Florida would probably have an easier task to be carbon neutral — but that does not seem to be on the agenda for the state’s current leadership. (See my post Earth Day – call for Wartime Mobilization )
The problem is the lag time to stop and reverse the ice melting, which can be demonstrated with a simple experiment. Put a pot of water on the stove, with a chunk of ice in it. Turn the heat up to a modest level and wait a few minutes. As soon as the ice starts to melt, turn the heat off. The ice keeps melting. We are now running that experiment on a global scale.
The fact is that unfortunately regardless of Miami does with carbon emissions it will not have a noticeable effect on global warming, the melting glaciers and ice sheets, or sea level rise. Though we should reduce emissions as part of the global effort to turn things around, the best focus for Miami to prepare for higher sea level is to begin adaptation, which starts with building higher. That will take innovative designs by developers and a total redesign of the low lying region. That will take bold thinking by city leaders, professionals, businesses, architects, engineers, planners, and residents. It is not just developers, home owners, and businesses. It is the infrastructure such as the height of roads, bridges, utilities.That will determine if Miami will still be a vibrant city in the second half of this century.
We must stop the false belief that cutting CO2 emissions will stop sea level from rising. Putting the focus on adaptation is what will make communities viable.